Flash estimate - July 2011 Euro area inflation estimated at 2.5%

Euro area1 annual inflation2 is expected to be 2.5% in July 2011 according to a flash estimate issued by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. It was 2.7% in June3.

Computation of flash estimates

Euro area inflation is measured by the Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (MUICP). To compute the MUICP flash estimates, Eurostat uses early price information relating to the reference month from Member States for which data are available4 as well as early information about energy prices.

The flash estimation procedure for the MUICP combines historical information with partial information on price developments in the most recent months to give a total index for the euro area. No detailed breakdown is available. Experience has shown the procedure to be reliable (19 times exactly anticipating the inflation rate and 5 times differing by 0.1 over the last two years). Further information can be found in Eurostat News Release 113/2001 of 5 November 2001.

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